Sewells Group today released the inaugural report of the Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) for India. The Sewells Group ADCI is an attempt to capture and quantify the sentiment of auto dealers across the length and breadth of the country, representing a host of brands across product categories. The ADCI will be published quarterly, and will evolve to become a reliable lead indicator of retail sales across brands and vehicle categories.
The inaugural ADCI survey was conducted in April 2014, to capture the dealer sentiment at the end of Jan-Mar quarter of 2014. The inaugural findings are based on 215 dealer responses received from 116 locations, representing passenger cars, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers of 24 different brands.
The timing of the inaugural edition represents an interesting point in time for the economy in general, and the auto industry in particular. March 2014 represents the end of a relatively poor financial year, and with elections around the corner, it is interesting to note the fractured sentiment of automotive dealers in terms of how they feel about the near future.
The ADCI is designed to vary between -100 and +100 where an index score of -100 represents the most pessimistic outlook, and +100 indicates the most optimistic sentiment. The index is based on how dealers see the overall market and their businesses performing in next six months.
The findings of the inaugural survey are given below:
- The overall ADCI stands at -20, representing a mildly pessimistic sentiment amongst the dealer fraternity.
- The passenger car ADCI stands at -40, representing a moderately pessimistic sentiment amongst passenger car dealers.
- The commercial vehicle ADCI stands at -32, representing a moderately pessimistic sentiment amongst commercial vehicle dealers, but interestingly, a shade more
- optimistic than passenger car dealers.
- The two-wheeler ADCI stands at +13, indicating that two-wheeler dealers are mildly optimistic about the state of business with a 6-month horizon.
The ADCI survey delves into the following areas:
- The impact of the current economic scenario on the market, as well as the dealership business
- Expected performance of market as well as dealership over the next 6 months
- View on current situation of sales, inventory and profit vis-à-vis same period last year
- View on current situation of sales, inventory and profit vis-à-vis previous quarter
- Expected levels of sales, inventory and profit over the next 6 months
- Future view of manpower strength of the business